By the Numbers

The popular vote in 2008 was [Barack Obama] 69,456,897 to [John McCain] 59,934,814, respectively, according to Wikipedia. As we travel back and forth, up and down, we have talked to thousands who testify that they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but will not vote for him again. This time around they just will not vote for anyone. Some of them will change their minds and vote for him in 2012. The issue is how many is “some.” The 2008 election saw a record turnout, which will not happen in 2012 unless something drastic happens. Since the out of power party usually makes a small gain, slightly over 60 million Republican votes are likely. It is very doubtful that Barack Obama will have even 55 million legitimate votes. Ron Paul is very likely correct that whoever wins the Republican nomination will win the general election.

The 2012 Republican Convention requires 1143 delegates to win the nomination. The state of Virginia has 49 delegates for this convention and only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are on the VA primary ballot. These 49 delegates are almost 5% of the total needed. With so many candidates and no candidate having even 30% this gives Mitt Romney and Ron Paul a tremendous advantage over the other candidates.